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The Times

how to read them critically this election year

  • Written by Grant Duncan, Research associate, Public Policy Institute, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

With nine months to go, how much can opinion polls tell us about the general election on November 7? Short answer: not much.

Based solely on polls, no one could have predicted the past three elections this early in the year they were held. Trends shifted over the subsequent months, and events (especially COVID in 2020) intervened to shake things...

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