The impact of U.S. elections on crypto: Octa broker takes a close look at the candidates and their respective policies
The U.S. Presidential Elections is arguably one of the most significant political events globally. Analysts are nervously monitoring the campaign, trying to figure out the possible implications on global assets. Octa aims to investigate how the result of the elections can impact crypto prices and the industry in general.
KUALA LUMPUR, MALAYSIA - Media OutReach Newswire - 18 September 2024 - Another exciting year for the crypto market is still in its making, with popular cryptocurrencies already showboating their impressive price action so far. Most significant was Bitcoin's move, as the leading coin managed to break to a new all-time high level, then corrected lower and still remains positive on a year-to-date basis. It is no surprise that crypto traders are keeping an eye out for opportunities especially as important economic and political events are looming. Admittedly, the US elections are without doubt the key political event anticipated by politicians and investors alike as they can potentially rattle the financial markets. There are only two possible outcomes, its either Trump or Harris. The pros and cons of each scenario will be discusssed based on how the crypto market could respond to each situation and in general to the presidential elections.
Past Presidential Elections and Crypto companies
In 2016, during the Trump - Clinton election campaign no major movement was observed within the crypto market as Bitcoin advanced marginally after the results were announced. However, back then the crypto market was not as developed as it is today. Its engagement by investors and traders was not as vibrant as it is today so a comparison may be misleading. Therefore, it is more relevant to look at the Trump -Biden campaign. At that time, the market had already boomed in 2017, but once again risky assets like Bitcoin never really budged. In our opinion, cryptocurrency companies may be giving away serious money to support candidates that are more likely to help the crypto industry if elected. Bitcoin contributions are legal and can be accepted as per the Federal Election Commission.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump made headlines as a result of his attendance at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville in July. His sheer attendance at this event was already extraordinary for its own sake and his speech was greatly welcomed by the crowd. Bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins have gained tremendous value during the past decade. Despite attending the event, Trump has not published his official plans for crypto yet making it challenging for us to examine his proposals. It remains to be seen whether he is truly committed in supporting the crypto market.
Kamala Harris
Unfortunately, Kamala Harris plans for the cryptocurrency industry remain unclear thus far. Harris has refrained from providing information on cryptocurrencies which could lead investors to suppose her views are clouded with uncertainty.
Interestingly, as of September 2022, 16% of adult Americans, had bought crypto currencies with the market capitalization reaching $3 trillion globally. This is enough evidence proving that US investors (voters) will be very interested in the future developments of the crypto market. The Harris administration is very well aware of this point. Hence, in August, with the initiative of the Democratic party, a virtual town hall event was organized featuring the "Crypto4Harris" motto. Other than that, traders have little to work with.
From a different viewpoint, Harris is already in place to take actions to support crypto. As the current VP, Harris already has the power to influence or embrace the crypto market through actions or general support. Thus, if Kamala Harris eventually decides to open up about cryptos, volatility for digital assets could increase.
Forward, Harris could be under pressure to reveal her real intentions for the crypto industry and this may be used by campaign as a tactic to gain attention and possibly attract more votes.
Proceed with caution
In another scenario, if the election keeps traders in suspense and the final results are delayed, then cryptocurrencies could come under extensive volatility with wide price swings coming into play. Indeed, one of Bitcoin's characteristics is performing large price movements unexpectedly. This behavior has been observed multiple times in the past for numerous major digital assets and the importance of presidential elections can present similar opportunities for traders. This outcome may lead to increased risks for traders, but it can equally create excellent openings for gains. More specifically, if Bitcoin tests important technical levels, it could be useful for traders to set up strategies that consider these levels, whilst opening or closing trades. Being mindful of such trading levels can also help when using pending orders.
From a trading perspective, it could be useful for traders to monitor the crypto markets' reactions to important events as we get closer to the elections. September and October could set the tone for the actual impact in November, when the Presidential Elections will be in the epicenter of the market's attention. Furthermore, its worth mentioning that September has traditionally been a bearish month for Bitcoin. Since 2019, Bitcoin has ended September four times in red territory (down) and only one in green (up). In addition, during September 2024 the market awaits a crucial FOMC meeting. This event is vital for the markets as the odds are stacked for a possible rate cut. The actual outcome of this event could trigger extraordinary volatility and introduce new trends for various risky asset groups including cryptos.
As a final view, it is clear that U.S. politicians can no longer ignore the crypto industry. Crypto companies and investors will be closely watching the elections as their interests may depend on the result of these elections. Some crypto firms are going through intense legal battles which could even lead to an existential threat. So, the general crypto industry understands that the president coming into power will have the responsibility to upgrade regulations and support the industry. The crypto industry's longevity and expansion may depend on the person elected as U.S. President in November. We highlight that the role of cryptocurrencies in the election is still uncertain.
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Octa
Octa is an international broker that has been providing online trading services worldwide since 2011. It offers commission-free access to financial markets and various services used by clients from 180 countries who have opened more than 52 million trading accounts. To help its clients reach their investment goals, Octa offers free educational webinars, articles, and analytical tools.
The company is involved in a comprehensive network of charitable and humanitarian initiatives, including the improvement of educational infrastructure and short-notice relief projects supporting local communities.
In the APAC region, Octa received the ‘Best Trading Platform Malaysia 2024’ and the ‘Most Reliable Broker Asia 2023’ awards from Brands and Business Magazine and International Global Forex Awards, respectively.
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